We saw the poll when it first came out but doubted anyone would take it seriously because of its dubious methodology and the polling group’s history of inaccuracy. But now, the Associated Press and NBC have featured it, so it needs to be addressed. This poll is literally fake news — the poll is provably fabricated due to a sampling bias.
GenForward could not have been more wrong about the 2016 presidential election. Their poll directly before the November election predicted Donald Trump would get only 19 percent among millennial voters. He won 37 percent — nearly double what their polling showed.
Now, GenForward is peddling another junk poll that claims 57 percent of millennials believe Trump is an “illegitimate president.”
Don’t believe it.
The same GenForward “poll” claims Trump has a 22 percent approval rating with millennials. A recent poll from the more reliable Quinnipiac University has his millennial approval at 33 percent. Gallup has it also at 33 percent.
The GenForward “poll” also claims young Americans believe “racism” is the #1 ranked problem facing the country. It claims 15 percent of millennials have participated in a “protest, rally, or demonstration” since Trump was elected.
Who are they sampling for this poll?
Well, Democrats — many more Democrats and left-leaners than are actually reflective of the electorate.
CIRCLE, the most reliable exit poll for millennials, said 37 percent of millennials identify as Democrats and 27 percent identify as Republicans. In this GenForward poll, just 16 percent identify as Republican and 40 percent identify as Democrats.
If you haven’t noticed the trend, usually the GenForward data is off somewhere between 11-to-18 percentage points. That is because of their biased sample. In scientific polling, the people polled (called the sample) need to be indicative of the overall population. GenForward called more liberal millennials than moderate and conservative millennials to get the results they wanted — rather than the true results.
This poll is underwritten by AP and the University of Chicago. Both of these organizations are well-respected, but if they continue to allow their names to be used to back biased polls that lead to fake news, their reputations can and should be tarnished.