Very few data and political experts saw Donald Trump winning Wisconsin. Most didn’t see him winning Florida, and North Carolina — and keeping it close in Virginia.
As of right now, it appears Trump will win both the popular vote and has a good chance to get to 270 electoral votes before the sun rises tomorrow. Decision Desk has called the race for Trump.
So, why did it happen? Most analysts are saying it’s working-class voters who came out in droves. Certainly that is a part of it, but there is another storyline: Clinton underperformed with millennials, and Trump did much better than expected.
Red Alert Politics Millennial poll average had the election at: Clinton 56, Trump 27, Johnson 12, and Stein 5.
I projected it to be: Clinton 58, Trump 28, Johnson 10, and Stein 4. Remember, President Obama won more than 60 percent of the under-30 vote.
More exit poll data will come in the next 24 hours, but in the two polls, one from CNN and one from MSNBC, Trump did much better than our average and Clinton slightly underperformed. According to CNN, Clinton won 55 percent and Trump won 37 percent of millennials. MSNBC has it at 51 percent to 34 percent.
This is a demographic Clinton needed. They didn’t show up — and more showed up for Trump than polled.