Predictions in politics are a dangerous business, but also pretty entertaining. We’re going to give it a shot.
Red Alert Politics started calculating the average of polls that include data on the millennial vote; we called it the Millennial Poll Average. But, just because it’s an average of good polls doesn’t mean it will be exactly correct.
As it stands right now, the average puts Hillary Clinton at 52.3 percent, Trump at 25.1 percent, Gary Johnson at 11.5 percent and Jill Stein at 4.5 percent. The remaining 6.6 percent of people remaining in the average refused, so those refusals won’t be reflected in final results. If the models hold, each candidate should increase proportionally.
So, what would that look like approximately?
The answer: Clinton 56, Trump 27, Johnson 12, and Stein 5.
Are these going to be accurate? I think they will be really, really close. My guess is that the third-party vote will be even more depressed than these numbers show and that this could help Clinton. Hillary’s problem, though, is that this could be the lowest turnout for the under-30 vote in decades.
My actual prediction is Clinton 58, Trump 28, Johnson 10, and Stein 4.
I’m predicting that Clinton and Trump will outperform our Millennial Poll Average, but I also believe that turnout will be depressed. Some data has shown that 5 million fewer voters under age 30 will vote; 20.5 million voters under 30 voted in 2012. I believe the under-30 vote will be less than 20 million voters in 2016.
President Obama won more than 60 percent of the under-30 vote in both 2008 and 2012. In 2008, 22.3 million under-30 voters showed up.
If fewer than 20 million voters turn out, this will hurt Clinton in key battleground states like Ohio and Iowa, but might not be small enough to save Florida for Trump. If it’s below 18 million, Clinton will lose. We won’t go into the electoral college, but just make sure to stay tuned to the youth vote results as they come in. These results will play a massive role tomorrow.