Red Alert Politics is happy to announce we have launched a new widget, the “Millennial Poll Average” to tabulate millennial voting trends leading up to the presidential election in November. This widget will appear on our homepage at the top right corner.
First analysis: July 25
As of July 25, numerous polling trends have arisen. The most significant is that Hillary Clinton is struggling to win younger voters, falling under 40 percent in more than half of recent polls. Millennials were key to the “Obama coalition,” and the president won more than 60 percent of this demographic in both elections. If Clinton fails to raise this number significantly, she will remain vulnerable to losing to Donald Trump.
The other major trend is the popularity of third-party candidates. With Libertarian Gary Johnson at nearly 15 percent and Green Jill Stein at nearly 10 percent, one-in-four younger voters are abandoning the established parties for candidates who are more closely aligned with their values. Millennials might even fuel Johnson to make the debate stage this fall.
These third-party candidates are taking support away from both parties, but more from Clinton. In particular, former supporters of Bernie Sanders are flocking to alternative candidates; one recent poll had 61 percent of Sanders former voters supporting either Johnson, Stein, or Trump. In almost every poll, Trump’s margin is better in a four-way race versus a two-way race. Clinton will need to whither away support from these third-party candidates to stay competitive.
Methodology for the “Millennial Poll Average”
Red Alert will average the 8 most recent polls from major polling firms which provide crosstabs for voters ages 18-to-29 or 18-to-35. The poll must include at least one third-party candidate or an “other” category in their polling. This year’s election is a four-way race in most states, and millennials have shown significant support for third-party candidates in most polls.