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Trump strongest GOP primary supporters are Independents and Democrats

(AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)

(AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)

For the first time since Ronald Reagan, the Republican frontrunner can count on certain Democrats as his biggest supporters.

The New York Times reported that Donald Trump’s biggest supporters are irregular voters and working-class, less affluent, white, Independents and Democrats — a coalition that is hard to get out in a Republican primary.

Civic Analytics, a Democratic data firm, conducted the study by interviewing more than 11,000 Republican-leaners since August, the largest ever sample size.

This isn’t to say these are Trump’s only supporters- he also leads among women, young people, and highly educated Republican voters as well. He even holds a lead among minorities who plan on voting in the GOP primary despite the mainstream media being baffled since his comments about immigration.

Image via NY TImes & Civic Analysis

Image via NY TImes & Civic Analysis

Trump’s best states are West Virginia and New York, his best congressional district is the upstate NY-24, a Democratic-leaning district represented by John Katko (R).

The billionaire wins many parts of the deep south like Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida but has limited appeal due to the popularity of Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz.

His worst states are west of the Mississippi- Utah being one of the only places that his support is in the teens.

Another interesting development is that Trump has high levels of support in areas where Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary. While the NY Times tried to equate this racism it may be a bigger correlation with class and elitism- like when Obama said, “It’s not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

While it is a huge obstacle for Trump to win in some Republican primary states, it stands as a very big opportunity in the general election.

If the billionaire’s campaign team can create a turnout model to engage Republican leaning, working class Democrats, who have not voted in the past several election cycles it could flip states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Image via NY Times & Civis Analytics

Image via NY Times & Civis Analytics

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