Why I Think Obama Is Toast

Barack Obama is toast. This is not something I say lightly. I generally try to remain cautious about predictions, because the prediction business is a humbling one. I have never been especially bullish on Mitt Romney, and I spent most of the summer and early fall arguing that this was basically a neck-and-neck race that would go down to the wire. But in the end, two things stand out:

One, Mitt Romney has a consistent, significant lead among independent voters, which increasingly looks like a double-digit lead. This is especially clear in national polls, but can also be seen in the key swing state polls. It’s been a hard enough number for the past few weeks now, even as the last of the debates gets baked into the polls, that there’s little chance that Obama can turn it around in the 11 days remaining in this race. In fact, Obama has been underwater with independents almost continuously since the middle of 2009.

Two, to overcome losing independents by more than a few points, Obama needs to have a decisive advantage in Democratic turnout, roughly on the order of – or in some places exceeding – the advantage he enjoyed in 2008, when Democrats nationally had a 7-point advantage (39-32). Yet nearly every indicator we have of turnout suggests that, relative to Republicans, the Democrats are behind where they were in 2008. Surveys by the two largest professional pollsters, Rasmussen and Gallup, actually suggest that Republicans will have a turnout advantage, which has happened only once (in the 2002 midterms) in the history of exit polling and probably hasn’t happened in a presidential election year since the 1920s.

Those two facts alone caused me to conclude at the end of last week that Obama will lose – perhaps lose a very close race, but lose just the same. That conclusion is only underscored by the fact that, historically, there is little reason to believe that the remaining undecided voters will break for an incumbent in tough economic times. He will lose the national popular vote, and the fact that he has remained competitive to the end in the two key swing states he needs to win (Ohio and Wisconsin) will not save him.

Read more at Red State

Comments

Comments

  1. rickd785 says:

    You might be right.The Mittster will break your heart. However, he is white which is all you people care about.

    1. Wahr Sager says:

      Hmmmm, it seems to me that color — which actually appears to be your focus — occurs along a spectrum, hence shades of pigment are irrelevant. Furthermore, “race” is a social construct — not a recognized bio-category around which humans can be organized. I am not voting for Obama — This Time Around — b/c his ecomic and foreign polices are abysmaal failures. Moreover I never make decisions based on racial stereotypes, and I pity those whose self-worth is determined by the false naratives of identity politics.

  2. Larry Maheu says:

    Don’t talk to me abut race. ‘Whites’ gave Obama a majority, including the Congress and the Senate. Fours years of majority. So why bring in race now?
    Obama tried and failed. When Romney tried, he succeeded. In these economc times, Americans will vote for success, not for more failure. Don’t you care about that? Would you prefer to continue with more failure? If you do,then race is a problem YOU have.
    Anyone who would vote for Obama hasn’t followed events for the past four years.
    The Great Pretender is a Deceiver. A big talker and little doer, with no plan to offer. He has proven to only talk the talk. Romney has walked the walk. If good speeches from reading a monitor could balance the budget, pay down the debt and restore jobs, Obama would have succeeded. No more ‘yes we can’ and ‘I’ll make shure (sure) ‘ speeches will do. This is too serious.
    Romney has proven he can work with Democrats, and Obama has proven he won’t.
    So, let’s see how you can emulate Romney.
    Larrt

  3. HTS says:

    Barack Hussein Obama is indeed toast. His putrid stench will soon be flushed down the toilet. He is circling the drain as we speak. His final demise has been self evident for weeks. The Libya debacle is the final nail in the coffin.

Polititainment

Billy Joel smoked with Obama

According to one of The Hill's sources, Obama invited Billy Joel to have a cigarette with him when the musician made a recent trip to the White House.

Beckham's catch = Obama's executive act

You know it is.

'SNL' remakes Schoolhouse Rock
“Saturday Night Live” hit today’s political process right on the nose during the show’s cold open. Spoofing Schoolhouse Rock’s “I’m Just a Bill,” Kenan Thompson as the bill tried to explain how he becomes a law. But before he can make his way  to President Obama’s desk to be officially signed into law, Obama beats him […]
Foxx talks dancing with Christie, McCain
Who could possibly forget this epic photo? Late night host Jimmy Kimmel certainly hadn’t, so when he had the chance to interview actor Jamie Foxx Wednesday night, he simply had to get the back story. Foxx has been the host of this annual charity event for several years. “What’s interesting is that every year that […]
Jon Stewart on Christie's 'pig problem'

Jon Stewart got into Chris Christie’s “pig problem”—which wasn’t quite what Stewart thought it was at first.

White House

Poll: Americans split on Obama’s immigration order
Americans are sharply split on their reaction to President Barack Obama’s recent executive actions on immigration that will essentially give amnesty to about five million undocumented immigrants,according to a new poll. The latest Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday found that 45 percent of voters support the president’s move, while 48 percent opposes it. Support for […]
Eric Holder stresses that federal investigations in Ferguson are not over

Attorney General Eric Holder released a statement Monday night assuring rioters that the Justice Department still has two investigations to complete in Ferguson.

Obama appeals for calm after Ferguson decision

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama appealed for calm and understanding in Ferguson on Monday after a grand jury decided not to indict in the death of Michael Brown, pleading with both residents and police officers to show restraint.

Obama defends his flip-flop on immigration executive action
President Obama may have denounced the very executive action on immigration he ended up taking  more than 20 times in his presidency, but that’s not stopping him from ardently defending his actions. Obama appeared on ABC’s “This Week” and host George Stephanopoulos grilled the president about his the contradictions in his words and actions. “You […]
Obama: Voters want ‘new car smell’ in 2016, Hillary would be ‘great president’
President Obama still has two years left in office, but with the GOP overhaul in the midterms and his waning popularity, most people are already looking to 2016. Including, it seems, Obama himself. He said the best part of running for president after a two-term president is that “you can stake out your own positions” […]

Congress

Rand blames 'politicians,' drug war in Ferguson

Sen. Rand Paul’s Time op-ed on Ferguson Tuesday blamed politicians for creating “a culture of violence” through the War on Drugs, and urged Ferguson protesters to “channel your frustration in ways that will make a positive change.”

Why are House Members exempt from ethics training?
Two U.S. representatives are questioning a curious practice on the Hill that exempts House Members from ethics training. But it doesn’t look like they are getting much support from their colleagues that enjoy this perk. Reps. David Cicilline (D-R.I.), and Scott Rigell (R-Va.), are urging congressional leaders to end the House exemption on the annual ethics […]
Paul calls for formal declaration of war on ISIS

Sen. Rand Paul wants Congress to formally declare war against ISIS.

The fallout from Boehner not owning a dog

President Obama's offer to smooth over an immigration reform compromise with Speaker John Boehner has turned out to be a case of barking up the nonexistent tree.

Sen. Graham: Benghazi report 'full of crap'
Despite a new House Intelligence Committee report clearing the Obama administration of wrongdoing in its response to the Benghazi attack, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is not backing down. “I think the report is full of crap,” Graham said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” He said that the report did not take into account the members […]