Why I Think Obama Is Toast

Barack Obama is toast. This is not something I say lightly. I generally try to remain cautious about predictions, because the prediction business is a humbling one. I have never been especially bullish on Mitt Romney, and I spent most of the summer and early fall arguing that this was basically a neck-and-neck race that would go down to the wire. But in the end, two things stand out:

One, Mitt Romney has a consistent, significant lead among independent voters, which increasingly looks like a double-digit lead. This is especially clear in national polls, but can also be seen in the key swing state polls. It’s been a hard enough number for the past few weeks now, even as the last of the debates gets baked into the polls, that there’s little chance that Obama can turn it around in the 11 days remaining in this race. In fact, Obama has been underwater with independents almost continuously since the middle of 2009.

Two, to overcome losing independents by more than a few points, Obama needs to have a decisive advantage in Democratic turnout, roughly on the order of – or in some places exceeding – the advantage he enjoyed in 2008, when Democrats nationally had a 7-point advantage (39-32). Yet nearly every indicator we have of turnout suggests that, relative to Republicans, the Democrats are behind where they were in 2008. Surveys by the two largest professional pollsters, Rasmussen and Gallup, actually suggest that Republicans will have a turnout advantage, which has happened only once (in the 2002 midterms) in the history of exit polling and probably hasn’t happened in a presidential election year since the 1920s.

Those two facts alone caused me to conclude at the end of last week that Obama will lose – perhaps lose a very close race, but lose just the same. That conclusion is only underscored by the fact that, historically, there is little reason to believe that the remaining undecided voters will break for an incumbent in tough economic times. He will lose the national popular vote, and the fact that he has remained competitive to the end in the two key swing states he needs to win (Ohio and Wisconsin) will not save him.

Read more at Red State

Comments

Comments

  1. rickd785 says:

    You might be right.The Mittster will break your heart. However, he is white which is all you people care about.

    1. Wahr Sager says:

      Hmmmm, it seems to me that color — which actually appears to be your focus — occurs along a spectrum, hence shades of pigment are irrelevant. Furthermore, “race” is a social construct — not a recognized bio-category around which humans can be organized. I am not voting for Obama — This Time Around — b/c his ecomic and foreign polices are abysmaal failures. Moreover I never make decisions based on racial stereotypes, and I pity those whose self-worth is determined by the false naratives of identity politics.

  2. Larry Maheu says:

    Don’t talk to me abut race. ‘Whites’ gave Obama a majority, including the Congress and the Senate. Fours years of majority. So why bring in race now?
    Obama tried and failed. When Romney tried, he succeeded. In these economc times, Americans will vote for success, not for more failure. Don’t you care about that? Would you prefer to continue with more failure? If you do,then race is a problem YOU have.
    Anyone who would vote for Obama hasn’t followed events for the past four years.
    The Great Pretender is a Deceiver. A big talker and little doer, with no plan to offer. He has proven to only talk the talk. Romney has walked the walk. If good speeches from reading a monitor could balance the budget, pay down the debt and restore jobs, Obama would have succeeded. No more ‘yes we can’ and ‘I’ll make shure (sure) ‘ speeches will do. This is too serious.
    Romney has proven he can work with Democrats, and Obama has proven he won’t.
    So, let’s see how you can emulate Romney.
    Larrt

  3. HTS says:

    Barack Hussein Obama is indeed toast. His putrid stench will soon be flushed down the toilet. He is circling the drain as we speak. His final demise has been self evident for weeks. The Libya debacle is the final nail in the coffin.

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