Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol said this morning during a panel discussion on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace that the Ryan pick has changed the dynamic among younger voters who voted for Barack Obama by a 2-to-1 margin in 2008 over John McCain..
“They are by definition less committed, I think, they’ve only voted once or twice. Obama took them 2 to 1 in 2008,”Kristol said. “This is where the Ryan pick can make a bigger difference than people understand. The Romney-Ryan ticket is now younger than the Obama-Biden ticket.”
Kristol argues that Mitt Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate sets the GOP ticket up as the youthful, change-oriented choice for the younger generation unlike in 2008 when that dynamic clearly was with Obama.
This could swing them toward Romney and possibly tip the election, especially if it is close, because there are more swing voters under the age of 30 than in any other demographic, according to Kristol.
And this could make them even more crucial as a voting bloc because polling shows the electoral map tightening between Romney and Obama, with less solidly Obama states than there were in April when the race toward November began.
“There’s been a steady decline. And this week we saw a decline again. He — New Hampshire moved from lean — from toss-up to lean Obama, but Ohio moved the other way from lean Obama to toss-up,” GOP strategist Karl Rove told Wallace. “[T]here’s evidence that Wisconsin with the choice of Ryan is now moving to toss-up. And I suspect by next week with new polls will be in the toss-up category.
“So this race is very much up in the air. The president’s advantage has declined significantly since the beginning of this poll in late April in terms of a solid Obama states and Romney has been firming up his position. We’re in for a barn burner here in the next 80 days.”
Democratic strategist Joe Trippi, who ran Howard Dean’s 2004 campaign, agreed with Rove’s assessment of Ryan’s impact on the electoral map, particularly in Wisconsin, which hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
“Ohio and I think Virginia become very critical,” Trippi said.
But former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh suggests that unless Romney has a strong rollout at the Republican National Convention and that he does well against Obama in the debates, he could face an uphill battle.
When asked by Wallace about the difference between the two sides on the money front, Rove argued the GOP has the advantage.
“Obama and the DNC raise $75 million in July. I bet they bank no more — they set aside — I bet they spent $65 million to $70 million of that, which means the advantage they had at the end of June — at the end of June of $26 million was erased in July,” Rove said. “And I bet you the Romney campaign has a $30 million or $40 million cash advantage.”