The 2014 '30 Under 30'

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Santorum’s Burned Bridges Might Cost Him Home State Win

For a presidential candidate, winning on their home turf is a big deal. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) admitted back in February that any candidate that lost his home state would be “very badly weakened.” Luckily for Gingrich, he and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have both been successful in winning their respective home states.

The odds are not looking as good for the other major contender in the year’s presidential race. Rick Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania holds its primary is on April 24, and the former Keystone State senator has his work cut out for him if he wants to have any chance of winning the delegate-laden state next month.

The Pennsylvania GOP establishment, which has significant power within the state, has lined itself up behind former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in this cycle. Last week alone, Romney picked up the endorsements of former Governor Tom Ridge as well as Congressmen Bill Shuster and Charlie Dent. Romney also has the backing of Bob Asher, a candy magnate and former  Montgomery County Republican Party Chairman who is still the party’s biggest donor, and Don Adams, the leader of one of the state’s most influential Tea Party organizations.

In contrast, Santorum’s only Pennsylvania endorsements are from two freshman congressmen, Lou Barletta and Tom Marino, and a handful of state legislators. He has yet to receive an endorsement from any politician who served alongside him in Congress.

The state’s top-ranking Republicans, Governor Tom Corbett and U.S. Senator Pat Toomey, are unlikely to endorse before April 24th. Toomey, however, is rumored to be in the Romney camp, having released a statement praising the former Massachusetts Governor’s tax plan last month. Having been on the losing end of Santorum’s 2004 endorsement of former U.S. Senator Arlen Specter doesn’t help matters either.

The problem for Santorum lies in the fact that Pennsylvania’s delegates aren’t binding – which means that the establishment essentially controls how the state’s delegation votes in Tampa. While the state’s “uncommitted” delegates will also be chosen on April 24th, the candidates running are mostly party insiders and elders who will likely tow the party line and back Romney at the convention.

Santorum may currently hold a double-digit lead over Romney in the among likely primary voters, but unless he wins his home state’s beauty contest handily, his candidacy is all but over right where it began almost a year ago.

 

Comments

Comments

  1. John Galt says:

    Your story is severely lacking in the actual details of how PA works. I’m from there and have done a significant amount of research. There are 18 Congressional Districts with 3-4 delegates from each district going to the National Convention. The be a delegate you had to collect 250 signatures from within your district to get on the ballot. All signatures had to be from registered Republicans. The deadline has already passed and the ballots are done. Ron Paul delegates overwhelmingly dominate the ballots for every Congressional District. PA has essentially already been decided and is a major victory for Ron Paul. The main stream media and perhaps even you will have no clue that the overwhelming majority of delegates (all non-binding and voting how they desire once at the National Convention) will be for Ron Paul. You heard it hear first…

    Now, how will the GOP commit even more fraud (like in MO this weekend [#Dokes] and nearly every other state to date to try and change the delegate count at the convention. This should be interesting…

    1. Jovilyn says:

      Why this election is craitcil to America is stated in the following simple and profound comment that I read on another blog. I share it for its importance.frankspence CollapseGiven the number of Americans who do not pay Income Tax is now 47% and rising under Obama, and that there has never been more people on Food Stamps, and that the scope of people on Welfare of one kind or another is increasing you are approaching, if you have not already reached it a split of 50% plus relying on one State hand out or another. Once that balance is reached it is game over for the Republican Presidential candidates going forward, because Turkeys do not vote for Christmas. This is not speculation on my part, I am British and have watched this scenario play out in our country since the introduction of the Welfare State in 1948, it has increased every time Labour held power and our economic situation has deteriorated as a result, so my comments are experiential.In an unrelated matter, kind of, I have just received an e-mail detailing an publicised item in the Affordable Healthcare Act though what it is doing in that Act I do not know. As from 2013 if you sell a House in the US you will be subject to a house sales Tax which will increase over time. This will adversely affect Seniors who wish to down size as they will have less disposable cash to invest in their new home. It also has another effect, certainly initially, it will further depress the housing market, an area which even Obama has admitted is the boiler room of the economy. We have a similar Tax here in the UK, we call it stamp duty and on normal homes it is 1% of the price, over a3250,000 ($375,000) it rises to 2% and it is now proposed that for homes over a32 million ($3 million) it should be 7%, that would add a3140,000 ($210,000) to the bill for selling, these taxes are imposed on the seller. This measure should be opposed but Democrats will push it as part of their fairness doctrine .

      1. Ingrif says:

        you want to vote for a conservative in 2012 Paul’s your cioche.a0 This pro-Gingrich group figured it out and has asked his supporters to vote Paul in the Old Dominion.a0 Santorum will have

  2. [...] and Gingrich supporter, told Red Alert Politics that he liked what he heard from Santorum, but the machinations of the state party could deprive Santorum from getting any delegates even if he wins the [...]

    1. vale says:

      I don’t know about the rest of you, but after watching Mitt Romney’s viorcty speech last night and also watching Rick Santorum’s losing speech, it was a difference of night and day. Mitt’s humbleness came through loud and clear. Also, he was portraying his vision for America and comparing his with Obama a stark contrast. While listening to Rick, he appeared that he was full of venom. Tearing down Romney in every sentence that he could. Is this what we really want in an Executive and Leadership role? Especially for President? Newt, in his little speech after, was also full of venom and revenge. Both Rick and Newt cannot win the nomination outright with delegates (and they know it) and now since plan A is not going to work out they are going to plan B. Instead of focusing on everything that they can do to get their message out and have the voters decide, they are going to focus all of their attention now on Romney, tear him down and much as possible so that he can’t win the nomination. This reminds me of the chariot race in Ben Hur. Since Macella could not win on his own accord, he did everything in his power to take down Judah, even whipping him with his whip. We know what happens to Macella after that. Even after the race, and Judah the victor, even on his death bed he is still so full of venom that he states: The race is not over Judah. It goes on. The American People are not stupid . They can see right through Rick and Newt. Mathmatically, they know that it is not possible during the Primary to win the nomination. Therefore, they have stooped to the lowest level by choosing the path of destruction, not only for themselves, but for the Party and also the Nation. Numbers don’t lie.

  3. Jaynos says:

    Mittens can run but he can’t win. He’s a Mormon, ain’t ever gonna happen, he may as well be a Satanist in most Red States.Romney’s dumb and prlaictdbee too; he’s going to pick Crazy Eyes as his running mate to improve his profile with Chreeestchans and Tea Baggers and he imagines it will help with women voters too, but nothing could get Mittens elected, not even massive voter fraud.He’s just so obviously dislikeable, he’s got less charisma than G H W Bush and less star quality than R M Nixon.Obama could barbecue small children on the Whitehouse lawn and start pimping at this point and he would still win.

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