Due to my success in winning a friend’s Oscar pool the last several times I have participated, I was asked by my close friend, Red Alert Politics Editor Francesca Chambers, to share my Oscar predictions as an exclusive to Red Alert. I won’t be able to make the festivities this year, so I have no problem publishing my choices.
There is no great trick to successful Oscar predictions. Most of it is educated guessing, knowing who the voters are (Hollywood elites) and following a few rules. Actually, they’re not rules. Much like the Pirate Code, they’re more like guidelines.
Without further ado, here they are:
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendents
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris. It’s Woody Allen. Pretty obvious.
Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Transformers could win here as well.
Sound Mixing: Hugo
Sound Editing: Hugo, with this many nominations, it has to win some of these awards.
Live Action Short: The Shore. Directed by the same person who directed Hotel Rwanda, an excellent film.
Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore. A film on the message of the wonders of books and reading. Pixar could win with La Luna.
Original Song: “Man or Muppet,” The Muppets. Hey, you have a 50-50 shot here. And, I’m going with Hollywood’s respect for the Henson family.
Original Score: The Artist. The music drives this mostly silent film. Again, if the music isn’t good, how can the film do as well as it has?
Make-up: The Iron Lady. I wanted to throw my Harry Potter friends a bone here, but don’t be surprised if it wins.
Foreign Language Film: A Separation, Iran. It won the Golden Globe.
Editing: The Artist. It’s the best film of the year, and it’s mostly silent so it must be put together well to make it compelling.
Documentary Short: Saving Face. Creating awareness of the horrors of acid attacks on women in Pakistan. The Tsunami and The Cherry Blossom is another possible winner.
Documentary Feature: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory. A film about the wrongly convicted, a Hollywood favorite topic. Plus, music by Metallica.
Costume Design: Jane Eyre. I’m following one of my guidelines with this pick. It’s a British period piece. But, it could also go to one of the other big films – The Artist or Hugo.
Art Direction: Hugo
Cinematography: Tree of Life. Could go to Hugo as well.
Animated Feature: Rango. There were good animated movies this year?
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help. Basically a lock.
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners. Pretty much a no-doubter.
Actress: Viola Davis, The Help. Streep has won twice already, but her peers could decide to give her lucky number three. I don’t know if they’ll do it for a portrayal of someone the elites hate.
Actor: George Clooney, The Descendents. Another tough call, but George is well liked in Hollywood for more than his acting. Jean Dujardin could win for The Artist. Hey, an actor keeps his mouth shut for most of a movie. What’s not to like? I know some of the ladies will be disappointed if Brad Pitt doesn’t win.
Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist. Martin Scorsese could win this for Hugo, but he won the same award in 2006 for The Departed.
Picture: The Artist. It’s the one film I have heard a lot about this year.